For a long time, Libya was a country whose potential was well known, yet effectively kept locked. Today, it is turning into a dossier that is opening simultaneously on the ground and at the negotiating table, positioned at the intersection of energy, security, and geopolitics. The return of international energy companies, the renewed discussion of gas exports to Europe, and the rapid repositioning of regional actors around Libya are not coincidental.

Sanctions on Russian oil are entering a new threshold. The debate is no longer centered on the price of the barrel, but on whether the ship carrying it can still be insured. The European Union’s move to target maritime services, combined with discussions in the United Kingdom about the possible seizure of “shadow fleet” tankers, signals that energy sanctions are shifting into the maritime domain as a form of direct power projection.

The long term LNG agreements signed by Qatar with Japan and Malaysia are not an ordinary energy supply development. These contracts clearly indicate where power is concentrating within the global energy system. Competition in energy markets is no longer defined by price, but by continuity. Long term contracts shape not only gas flows, but also economic order, industrial resilience and the room for maneuver that states possess in times of crisis.

The accelerating energy dialogue between India and Canada, while outwardly framed as LNG trade, in fact signals the emergence of new power axes within the global energy order. Long-term supply linkages, infrastructure investment, and deliberate political alignment illustrate that energy security is increasingly structured around geopolitical risk rather than price.

Strategic Assessment The increase in military activity and demonstrations of force around the Strait of Hormuz has elevated the risk profile of global energy transit routes. As a significant share of the world’s oil and LNG trade passes through this narrow passage, any potential disruption would directly affect not only energy markets but also geopolitical stability. Growing strategic tensions among regional actors are further strengthening the linkage between energy security